Sem marine trend

looks like sem marine going to break out in the flag pattern in technically. Fundamentally this counter is good also... lets monitor it.

Head and Shoulder form for STI

Oops, STI start to form H&S, break down of neck line 3118 region will be bearish ... it is convergence for government estimation of 2011 GDP of 5.1% vs 15% in 2010.... time to lock in all profit..

what is QE2 ?

A good cartoon explain the Quantitative Easing, the Fed, the Goldman Sachs and the economy, enjoy.

Market sentiment ww49

Well, December rally continue to give investors as well as traders some hope, at least stick to tradition. Financial sector seems start to wake up after lagging for the past few months. I do hope market rally till end of year, please come back Santa.

Market Sentiment WW48

A wild ride last week, market usually bullish on first 3 days of December, is that all ? NFP result no good on friday but DOW able to climb to positive and stall as a hemmer, next week will be sideway movement ? I do hope Santa clause rally come back this year as we have not seen since 2006.. please come back Santa...

Market Sentiment ww47

well, i have sold all my local stock on friday after knee jerk reaction twice coz by North and South Korea crisis.  You have to throw all technical analysis, sentiment, etc out of the window when you have war going on ......I do hope world peace.. and pray my US stock trading up.

Market sentiment ww46

A flat week we have, next week will be a short week due to thanksgiving week, and on next monday after thanksgiving weekend will be cyber monday, lot of retail result and cyber retail result will be announce.. so i bet market will be flat for next week and after thanksgiving, bull will be fully recharge and run till 2011..

portfolio

not bad for a 2 weeks hold on sembawang marine, last thursday and friday knee jerk action causing price down 22 cents, thats a hugh decline, but i decided to hold on this strong fundamental stock, time will prove my judgement.





DRYS finally breakout from its base, 2 months hold worth the patience, so i decided to hold as seeing the fundamental turn positive.

Market sentiment ww44

well, market continue to bullish, with last Friday NFP good econ data. Earnings are still in the progress, hope market continue to rally..

Market sentiment ww43

Again, market move a bit flat last week, but only Nasdaq move higher and stay above nemesis of 2500 level. DOW and S&P500 are fighting with the April high. This week mark the Nov month and we have mid term election and FED interest rate and on Friday we have non farm payroll... great, another volatile week. It is worth to  look back month of Oct, while S&P500 rose 3.4%, material, energy,consumer discretionary and Technology are leader for the month, while Financial sector unable to lead the market. While traditionally Oct till April is the traditional best months for Nasdaq, i reckon technology stock have more upside ... trade well.

Market sentiment ww42

Market continue to push higher, with technology sector continue to push higher, this week will have heavy economic data, Asia market continue to strong, US futures continue to up... this week mark last week of OCT, a traditionally BEAR market... but we have already a 6 weeks rally.... will we push for 8 weeks rally ? till the mid term election ?

Market sentiment ww41

Falling dollar keep pushing GOLD higher and higher, all commodities continue their parabolic trend, think i should anticipate the trend too. Financial lagging the overall market, TECH stock continue to lead the market well, with many tech stock announce earning next week, i think DOW will move higher to April high of 11200.

Uncertainty

Market continue to overbought, it may stay overbought for quite some time, AAPL break 300 dollar, technology stock continue to lead the market. I reckon mild retracement next week . Best way to stay away from market either stay in cash or day scalp. Post profit counter made this week.

Market Sentiment WW40

Needless to say, DOW break 11000, just a little bit more to reach April high. QQQQ has been constipated for 10 days, it really depend on technology stock like AAPl , GOOG, YHOO to push the rally.... who know the market can stay overbought for how long.. earning kick starts, so i still judge an upside biased on the market.

Market Sentiment ww39

S&P 500 is on track to finish the month with a approx 9% gain, the best September performance in 71 years. The Dow's  gain approx 8% , the Nasdaq was up approx 12% strongly.. technology stock seems remain strong at the moment..


We are entering traditioanal bearish month, lets see will the market retrace or buyer continue to buy up the market, where the hell of sellers gone ?

Market now

No retracement yet from major market, today start with DOW retrace 78 points then rally to positive 50 points, market refuse to down..window dressing should be ended, lets see how market move this week towards October. so far this week is a bit negative, but upside target will be DOW at 11000 level, down side target will be 10750 strong previous resistence turn support.

Market Sentiment ww38

needless to say, market seems refuse to down, with low volume and once again break up resistence, same for Nasdaq and S&P500. Next week will be end of quarter, expect window dressing week , volatile week again..


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Day trade

Recent choppy market is good for day trade while market moving in range.
thoug not much profit at least exit without a loss.

Mkt sentiment WW36

No doubt a bullish week we have, all three benchmarks now facing 200DSMA as a resistance, so i do expect some retracement next week with tight range..

sentiment is still bullish here, just the uptick restricted by 200DSMA, we need catalyst to continue to push this market up...



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Mkt sentiment WW35

what a reverse compare to last week, S&P500 up 3.75% and all sectors shown positive movement. DOW nicely touch on 200DSMA line, which coincide with other benchmark index. Next week is a short trading week, i do expect some profit take. Market sentiment will be upside after last friday economic data.


By pbkian at 2010-09-06


By pbkian at 2010-09-06

Mkt sentiment WW34

thanks to Friday rally, DOW able to regain some lose, but this week still end with red. S&P500 loss -0.66%, with only utilities show positive


By pbkian at 2010-08-28

DOW show solid rebounce on Friday with higher volume, hope next Monday the bull continue to rally, at least untill NFP.


By pbkian at 2010-08-28

Winning Trade

Able to buy when SPY rebounce, a bit late of entry but that was to confirm a reversal.
bok 5 contract, take profit on 4 then let 1 for profit run.



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Mkt sentiment WW33

Dow end negative this week, Material sector continue to bull. How silly i watching the bond keep rising, the yield keep flattening, this should be enough to tell me investors are throwing money from equity to bond market, seeing daily volumn getting below average, but i still believe market will rally.... silly i.


By pbkian at 2010-08-22

technical wise DOW below the 50DSMA again. Friday end a hammer look, will it mean a rally on monday ?


By pbkian at 2010-08-22

Mkt sentiment WW32

Another volatile and negative week for the market, good earnings but traders and investor biase on economy data, DOW touching 10700 level few time within week but unable to break out from it, stubborn me keep loading CALL without any hedging or insurance buy,,,another lesson learnt for me.
Dow rest nicely on 50 DSMA line ( red ), expect a technical rebounce next week, a break down will just confirm anohter bear win for to head new low.



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Mkt sentiment WW31

choppy week, end up with 1.8% gain, Friday a lot of trader counter hit stop and market refuse to go down, ramp up in the afternoon, DOW end with a dragon fly doji, means an upleg next week ? This market really not suit the option trader.. psychology are tested again.

Mkt sentiment WW30

choppy market we have, but looking back, July month is a positive month after a hoohah May and June typical bear market, the old tradition sell in May seems repeat year after year, and after this is bargain hunter enter the market..

seeing the DOW this week performance, looks like market refuse to down. Friday end with a crucifix type log leg Doji, a potential upleg for next week ?
Next week start Aug month, we have economy data of employment rate and non farm payroll, another volatile week ahead.

DOW

By pbkian at 2010-07-31

S&P500


Seeing the sector, Material and industrial are the big gainer. S&P500 gain 7% for July month, very promising as compare to June.


By pbkian at 2010-07-31

Mkt sentiment WW29

Finally the S&P500 break up 1100 level, Dow break 10400 level, just need few more good earnings and good economic data to push it up more. Finger cross.

Sector performance for past one week

By pbkian at 2010-07-25

Dow

DOW break up 50SMA ( red ), moving ahead having 100SMA ( pink ) as resistence.


By pbkian at 2010-07-25

Shipping activity is back

BRIEFING.COM - Wednesday 21 July, 2010 @ 14:42 ET
Color on strength in dry bulk index

Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which is a measure of global trade, has nowposted gains for its fourth day in a row after declining for 34 consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak in 15 years.

The BDI is an assessment in price of all the major raw materials transported by sea. Since the index measures end demand for commodities aboard bulk carriers, including cement, coal, iron ore, steel and grain, it is used as a barometer of economic demand.

Today, the Baltic Index rose 1.1% to 1,781 as the Panamax Subindex, which rose 2.3% to 2,207, continued to lead the way. The BDI is still 57.7% off of the recent high of 4,209 hit on May 26. The other three subindices were mixed today: Supramax +1.3% to 1,692, Handysize +1.3% to 957 and Capesize -0.3% to 1,752.

The sharp decline this summer came largely because China reduced its demand for iron ore imports, which are shipped on Capesize vessels. The Capesize Subindex led the BDI lower. However, recent commodities demand, including demand from China, has given the index a boost. Recent strength could also be attributed to China COSCO, the largest dry-bulk operator in the world, saying that it's expecting to return to profitability for the first half of the year (co will report 1H10 results on Aug. 26). Dry-bulk shipping stocks hit new 52-week lows earlier this month, but have outperformed the broader market since then.

on 23 july, Bloomberg


Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., owner of Asia’s largest container shipping line, signed a $1.2 billion order for as many as 12 container vessels as a rebounding global economy revives world trade. (Bloomberg)

Singapore Stock

Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 1 percent to 2,955.67. (Bloomberg)

Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd. (COS SP),a China-based shipbuilder that also operates bulk carriers, surged 6.6 percent to S$1.61. The company said it won a $500 million contract build a deepwater drillship. (Bloomberg)

Mkt sentiment WW28

What a week, just on first day after Alcoa announce earning, market turn bullish, few days later it wipe out all the previous gain, now all 3 benchmark having death cross ( red cross down green line ), market a bit stressful now as it hardly break thru 200SMA and continue to gain from there, i hope Q3 earning season can give a catalyst to the market


By pbkian at 2010-07-18

looking at DIA ( DOW ETF ), the few Gap created get filled quickly, the GAP seems to tell us market shorterm direction, let's monitor it further.


By pbkian at 2010-07-18

/PS : This market really test our phsycology, seeing profit turn lose, patience and emotion are tested..

Mkt sentiment WW27

This short week market rebound hard and never look back, next week will be expiry week and expect another volatile week.
I believe s&P500 will try to climb back 1100 level, after that lets see wether market will further up, next week also start of earning season and couple of big tech name announce earning.

Mkt sentiment WW26

Very bearish now, every where is talking about Head and shoulder formed for s&P500, Dow and Nasdaq, and also deathly cross of 50SMA with 200SMA, either you are stay in cash or on short position will be a wise stratergy.

Natural Gas update

Well, DOW able to close above 200SMA, and some stocks start to close above 50SMA, that's a good sign. UNG perform has been stall a while. still bullish sentiment, untill it show weakness then i will sell off.



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Natural Gas

Time to going into summer doldrums, watch out for energy stock which been hammered down recently..

Cannot Make it

 

Cannot make it means cannot make it. With DOW and other benchmark trying hard to push up the market, few times kissing the 200SMA resistance and still cannot make it. With S&P500 hardly break thru 1100 level, plus Friday profit take, cum disappointed NFP and employment data, cum Hungary Sovereign debt default, cum Japan political unstable, North and south korea concern, US financial reform, Oil spill at Mexico gulf…. The market is shaky and nervous, expect June will continue May down momentum at least till 3^rd week. I am so happy to stay out cash, seeing DOW lose 1000 point during May and my account are safe.

 

 

 

 

Market trend WW21

what a week, DOW end -0.6% while the S&P500, NASDAQ and Small Cap making positive return. S&P500 lose 8.2% in May, more than worst monthly performance in more than one year. DOW and S&P500 end lower than 200DSMA, while NASDAQ make it slighly above it.
Friday end the month of May, last day profit take make it hard to overcome the resistance level.

DOW


By pbkian at 2010-05-29

Consumer Discretionary and material growing strong for the week, watch closely if this sector can form a higher high first.


By pbkian at 2010-05-29

June is coming but expect low trading volumn due to World Cup.

Market bottom ??

well, market seems to be bottom after an ugly hammer look formed on Tues, which quite similar to Jan Low. most investors start to load, VIX and Bond price is down, China giving positive comments on EUR... everything seems to be positive now.

But the DOW still under 200DSMA, as well as S&P500, which slightly up the 1100 resistence level by 3 points. I hope this is not another Bull trap , if it is, it will form a lower low, it may head back to 9800 region for Dow, if it really happen, it will be double bottom form.. then i will said time to load.


By pbkian at 2010-05-27

YTD, the XLY and XLI still leading the market while S&P500 legging 1.04%.


By pbkian at 2010-05-27

Mkt Trend WW20

A volatile week we have, DOW rebounce and then head lower, it has now sit below 200DSMA, but with S&P500 SMALL and MID cap index, both well rested on 200DSMA. Will the FRIDAY reversal indicate the bull is back ? or just a dead cat bounce after down for 4 days ? The VIX still stay high, the bond yield still stay flat ...
I will close monitor SMALL and MID cap index, if they get above 100DSMA, i will say market start recover, if they above 50DSMA, i will say investors's confidence are back.

it's not matter of timing to get in, its not matter of how low/bottom you can scoop the stocks at best discounted price, i will say most important is the Risk is lower when you trade after overall market trend turn bullish.

Last week Market sector strength


By pbkian at 2010-05-23

DOW


By pbkian at 2010-05-23

Found this picture on other website, our bull take a rest recently.


By pbkian at 2010-05-23

This Week sentiment

This week mark the last week of earning seasons, with Home Depot, last Dow 30 company to announce earnings. While walmart and HP announce after market close, the earnings has to be good …..

 

This week also full of CPI data from Euro, Asia and US, inflation will definitely be a hot topics for this week.

 

This week also an expiration weeks for futures and options contract..

 

Thurs will have FOMC meeting minutes …

 

This week will be up down up down …, I bet this week will end flat or consolidate..

 

Dow and S&P500 are below 100D SMA now, Slightly above it.. either it heading down or slight technical rebound.

Market is stressful now, but I see >50 points up within last 10 mins on last Friday DOW index, seems like the PPT ( plunge protection team ) from government likely to push up the market.. too add on last night U-Shape of recover, sound fishy before HD announce earnings…

 

/ps : DOW Future and Eurp stock market are up as of writing this blog, worst off I got to cut lose tonight, sob sob..

 

 

 

 

My 2cents sentiment

somehow the market still stressfull, only small cap able to break thru 50DSMA, DOW, NASDAQ and S&P500 seeing 50DSMA as a resistence.

Micron share seems to be weak also, i am afraid is a bull trap for shorterm investor.
Technically the 20DSMA(blue line) going to cross 100DSMA(pink line) downwards , that's not a good sign.
First support level if it heading lower will be 8 dollar....

I hope it will not, if it does, i am well prepared !!!



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Mkt Trend WW19

What a week, DOW lose 6.48% within a week, wipe out 8 weeks gain since March. Treasury and Gold continue to fly, EuroZone continue to gloom over Greece debt crisis, Asia china cool down economy and monetary tightening, no one dare to in bullish position. Last Jun 09, DOW correction about 9.2%, this Jan correction about 9.8%, i will expect market continue to decline as too many bearish news engulfing stock market.... ,dont forget the old say of Sell in May and go Away, staying in CASH versus a down time is another form of profit.

Sector Performance


By pbkian at 2010-05-08

DOW daily performance


By pbkian at 2010-05-08

Dow weekly performance


By pbkian at 2010-05-08

ACC performance


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Mkt Trend WW17

The DOW retrace on 9th candle (week) instead of 8th, seems like 8 weeks is the max that DOW can boost. Nevertheless, last week of April end with RED, and the retrace looks a good start for BEAR to take over.
Monthly candle APRIL become a shooting star like, GOD bless MAY !



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Local Favourite stock

Golden Agri form wedge


By pbkian at 2010-04-29

Osim start rebound, next target 0.99 cents


By pbkian at 2010-04-29

** Disclaimer - this is just for self analysist, buy at your own risk **

Mkt trend WW16

I was wrong again, hopefully mkt retrace this week, coz is a 8th candle reversal from weekly chart point of view, but the Greed and good earnings and economy keep pushing market higher and higher.. despite negative news from Greece, natural disaster..

Energy seems to be rise strongly 2 weeks ago till date, discretionary and industrial been up since march. existing and new home sales data turn green, home builder may get ready to overtake the rest.


Source from selectspdr.com



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Market Trend WW15

Goldman Sach fraud issue be a good catalyst to push down market, a long waited pullback, DOW has been 7 weeks bullish , could we have 8th candle reversal on next week ? big brother like GS, C ... will announce earnings, will this pull back a mild momentum and market continue to rally ? Indicators shows it is still bullish trend, above 20 days SMA.

DOW weekly candle

By

Dow Daily candle

By

Coincidentally VIX has touch extreme lower band of Bollinger, the bounce on Friday quickly touch on upper extreme band. one or two more candle on upper band confirm a pull back, it will be pretty volatile as this is just beginning of Q1/10 earning season.

SnP VS VIX

By

sectors performance wise will be leaded by consumer discretionary, technology and industrial. Friday GS fraud issue wipe out whole week Financial sector gain.
Quaote from www.sectorspdr.com

By pbkian at 2010-04-16